Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
